Pandemic will weigh heaviest on tourism-dependent economies, warns IMF

People relaxing at Accra Beach, Rockley, Barbados. Tourism-dependent countries in the Pacific Islands and the Caribbean are expected to be hardest hit. Photograph: Image Professionals GmbH/Alamy

THE GUARDIAN Phillip Inman @phillipinman Wed 31 Mar 2021 19.34 BST

But impact over rest of decade will not be as bad as that following financial crisis of 2008

Scars from the pandemic will prevent the global economy from making a full recovery, though the impact over the rest of the decade will not be as severe as that of the 2008 financial crisis , the International Monetary Fund has said.

Tourism-dependent countries in the Pacific Islands and in the Caribbean – such as Barbados – would be among those to suffer the most, the Washington-based organisation said. It expected global output to be about 3% lower in 2024 than projected before the Covid-19 pandemic.

A speedy rollout of Covid-19 vaccines in the US, China and the UK among others is expected to raise the forecast for growth when the IMF provides a fresh outlook for this year and next, despite a third wave of the virus spreading across Europe and parts of south America that will dampen the rebound.

In its most recent economic update in January, the IMF said the global economy was on course to recover from a 3.5% fall in GDP in 2020 with growth of 5.5% in 2021, up slightly compared with October’s forecast.



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